Samstag, 15. Oktober 2011

Supernova Elite Chase Update

First off, to make it short, I quit the sleep thing after around 40 hours in. Main problem was that I was super tired after the 8th or 9th nap basically not able to do anything. And definitely not able to play poker (at least not winning poker). Unfortunately I have no other choice than to grind bc of SNE-Chase and so I said fuck the experiment. I'm convinced it will work if you have some time to get used to the new schedule but I didn't have that time atm...

In case of SNE it's basically like every damn year. Your volume goes up and your EV goes down:


Graph looks shit, I should be up around 4ish and be down around 2k... Well, could be worse... I know the EV doesn't look too good either but that's mainly based on the fact that I run like a one-legged hooker and getting alot of coolers especially at 400 in no brainer spots where I nevertheless have awkward equity... One of the prime examples is this hand:


PokerStars - $4 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG: $220.15
MP: $581.50
CO: $296.00
BTN: $526.60
SB: $200.35
Hero (BB): $400.00

SB posts SB $2.00, Hero posts BB $4.00

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero has Jh Jd

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $8.00, fold, Hero raises to $32.00, BTN calls $24.00

Flop: ($66.00, 2 players) 6d Js 9h
Hero bets $40.00, BTN calls $40.00

Turn: ($146.00, 2 players) 7d
Hero checks, BTN bets $80.00, Hero raises to $328.00 and is all-in, BTN calls $248.00

River: ($802.00, 2 players) 8d

Hero shows Jh Jd (Three of a Kind, Jacks) (Pre 81%, Flop 74%, Turn 23%)
BTN shows Tc 8c (Straight, Jack High) (Pre 19%, Flop 26%, Turn 77%)
BTN wins $799.00

And if you get a bunch of that bullshit at your highest stakes it is hard to make money. But things will even out in the long run so nothing I can do for now besides playing my best poker...
In the end I also have to take into account that I played each day this month at least 10.000 hands which equals at least 8hours, often I played more than 12 and when you put in that volume your game will definitely take a hit especially during the last hours. That's the price you have to pay and it's totally normal.
After boni and milestones I'm up a little bit but that's anyways a joke...

In fact variance isn't even hitting me that hard yet when I look up the days seperately. My biggest loser was 1200$ over 10k hands of NL200-1k which is not that much and the biggest winner is 2.3grand over 11,3k hands which is not much either given the stakes.

Furthermore I started playing a little CAP lately as well. For those who don't know, CAP is a special form of No Limit Holdem where the betting is capped after 20Bigblinds. So in any given hand you cannot lose more than 20Bigblinds but cannot really win more than 20BBs either (unless it is multiway pot obviously). It's a very robotic game of poker where you will be all-in before the flop most of the time and experience alot of variance bc you getting your money in as a small fav or small dog very often.
Obviously I run like a peaze of shit in this game as well. So I'm down 2000$ after around 10k hands with an
expected value around 0. I have to see how things go but from what I saw there's alot of very juicy games especially at 400 and 600 with some massive fish who overcalling All-Ins for 20BBs with stuff like A8s or QJo. So my conclusion is that even if edges are slim these games should def. be beatable with a healthy table selection.
Main reason to start CAP was that I had problems getting moar than 12 tables after 7 in the morning especially during the week and if I don't want to end up playing 14 hours each days I have to get more tables running at the same time. NL100 herefore is not really an option because the VPPs are shit and so I thought I might give CAP a chance.


That's the current VPP count so it is still along way to go but atm I'm quite confident I should be able to make it if I do not go on some massive downer. I'm like 7000VPPs behind my schedule for this month so I might have to increase volume a little bit this and the next weekend to catch up. My plan is basically to average 6500points each day until christmas with appr. 8-10days off.
On a sidenote I took my first day off last wednesday were I was pausing my detox for a couple of hours. Before that I haven't been drunk for 3 weeks and now I will be a good boy until Halloween.

I hope things turn around and there is some heater coming along my way soon but obv it is poker and you should always expect the unexpected...

peaze

1 Kommentar:

  1. I'm running about 16K bellow ev at the cap limits you are playing now from 1st September.
    You will have a hard time switching back to 40-100bb poker if you grind out the rest of the vpps this year at cap.
    Furthermore even with table selection you won't beat CAP at more than 0.7BB while you seem to beat regular 40-100 at 2BB.
    It might be worth doing all that to keep sne if they at least let us keep it for the full year instead of Sept 30th

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